Frontline Perspectives

+1 Basics
A couple of weeks ago, Google officially announced its long-rumored “+1” program. Comparable to the Facebook “like” button, it allows searchers with Google profiles to recommend specific search results. Other Google members will be able to see how many pluses a listing received and who among their Google contacts (from Gmail, Buzz, etc.) have recommended it. Those without Google accounts will be able to see aggregated plus information.

Google has integrated social signals into search for a while — but this is the first time it has sought and captured explicit recommendations in its results. The +1 button also appears on paid search results. Additionally, a button will available in the near future for site owners to add to their web pages, so their visitors can register a “plus” while visiting the site. These will affect the total plus numbers shown next to that page’s Google listing.

At this stage, +1 is still an experiment and the parameters are not entirely clear. There are many implications for marketers, which I will cover in a future post. For now, I want to focus on the implications for Google in terms of its search dominance and its social media aspirations.

Forcing the Issue
Google has tried and failed to compete with Facebook as a social network, so now it’s leveraging its dominance in search to force its way into the social graph. It’s a game the company has a much better chance of winning — but it’s not without risk.

One of the biggest questions for the search world is, will “plusing” become a ranking factor? Google says it won’t for now, but it may be in the future. I think it’s highly doubtful it can become a meaningful ranking factor, as the opportunities for abuse are enormous.

Even if pluses don’t provide direct ranking benefits, they will still provide enhanced, more appealing search listings, driving increased traffic to sites with good plus numbers (thus providing indirect ranking benefits — since Google does factor click-through rate into rankings). The value of an improved Google listing is huge, so there will be enormous incentive for sites to do anything they can to pile up the “pluses” until they are likely to become meaningless and could even reduce the quality of Google’s results. Search results full of gamed recommendations are not likely to provide the type of quality on which Google has built its empire.

I think it’s possible that Google will become so focused on competing with Facebook that it could leave itself open on the search front. (Bing is starting to gain some momentum.)

Can Google Control and Harness the +1 Signal?
When it comes to assigning value to web pages through inbound links, as we’ve mentioned in a previous post, Google has always focused on rewarding “naturally obtained” links — and the engine has been in an ongoing and escalating cat-and-mouse game with link manipulators. A “natural” filter for the +1 feature will be almost impossible to implement or maintain. Even if Google found a way to stop the black and gray hat spammers of the world — who will find ingenious ways to “plus” listings so it appears that the recommendations came “naturally” — there is far too much momentum in the world of social signals to keep them contained.

For example, marketers commonly urge their audience to “like” them on Facebook by offering coupons and other deals. Google has already said it frowns on the practice of doing this for “pluses,” but this type of approach is part of the social media ethos. Even Google can’t expect to jump into the juggernaut of the social graph and impose a new set of rules.

Raising the Stakes
Google’s brass is clearly focused on finally cutting themselves a real chunk of the social media pie through their employees. Previous attempts — Orkut, Buzz — have failed to achieve the company’s aspirations. This time the web’s dominant search engine is putting its most valuable asset — the core search user experience — on the table, a move that raises the stakes significantly. If it works out well, Google becomes a player in social media. If it works out poorly, the value of its search results could be compromised.

We’ll all be watching very closely — especially the folks at Facebook and Bing.